Weak Monsoon in India 2026: Impact on Kharif Crops and What Farmers Should Do Now

Weak Monsoon in India 2026: Impact on Kharif Crops and What Farmers Should Do Now

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has created significant challenges for farmers in several parts of the country. Uneven and below-normal rainfall, followed by dry spells in September, has increased moisture stress at important stages of Kharif crop development.

Recent reports indicate that India received below-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon, while some important crop-growing regions have experienced much larger deficits. Cotton, soybean, rice and pulses are among the crops facing increased moisture-related risks. 

For farmers, the focus now needs to shift from simply waiting for rainfall to conserving available soil moisture, protecting crops during dry spells and using available irrigation water carefully.

2026 Monsoon Situation: Why Farmers Need to Be Alert

Rainfall during the Kharif season is critical for rainfed agriculture. A prolonged gap between rainfall events can reduce soil moisture and affect crop growth, flowering, pod formation, boll development and grain filling.

A September rainfall deficit is particularly important because many Kharif crops are entering reproductive or yield-forming stages. At the same time, the moisture remaining in the soil will influence preparation for the upcoming Rabi season.

The Government and ICAR have also emphasized contingency planning, water conservation, moisture conservation, crop monitoring and weather-based advisories in response to uncertain rainfall and El Niño concerns during Kharif 2026.

Impact of Weak Monsoon on Major Kharif Crops

1. Cotton

Cotton can be particularly vulnerable when rainfall becomes irregular during flowering and boll-development stages.

Moisture stress can result in:

• Reduced plant growth
• Flower and square shedding
• Poor boll development
• Smaller bolls
• Reduced fibre yield
• Greater crop stress during prolonged dry periods

Cotton farmers should monitor the crop closely rather than irrigating the entire field indiscriminately.

What cotton farmers can do

If irrigation water is available, prioritize water during critical crop stages such as flowering and boll development. In rainfed fields, practices that improve infiltration and conserve soil moisture become especially important.

Opening suitable furrows/inter-row moisture-conservation structures can help retain rainfall in the root zone. ICAR's cotton advisories also emphasize moisture conservation and protective irrigation for rainfed cotton where water is available.

Farmers should also continue scouting for bollworms, sucking pests, mites and other pests, because stressed crops can require closer monitoring.

2. Soybean

Soybean is another major crop affected by uneven rainfall. The crop is particularly sensitive to moisture availability around flowering and pod development.

A prolonged dry spell can contribute to:

• Poor flowering
• Reduced pod formation
• Poor seed development
• Premature leaf ageing
• Reduced grain yield

Crisil has identified soybean among the Kharif crops particularly vulnerable to deficient rainfall because of relatively limited irrigation coverage in many growing areas.

What soybean farmers should do

Farmers should:

1. Monitor soil moisture at root-zone depth.
2. Avoid unnecessary field operations that disturb soil moisture.
3. Control weeds because weeds compete directly with soybean for available water.
4. Use available irrigation strategically rather than applying excessive water.
5. Inspect plants regularly for insects and diseases.
6. Follow local agricultural advisories before applying pesticides or fertilizers.

Where rainfall resumes, farmers should take advantage of the rainfall by minimizing runoff and improving infiltration into the soil.

3. Rice

Rice is particularly sensitive to water availability because many production systems depend heavily on adequate rainfall and irrigation.

The 2026 rainfall deficit is already creating concerns for rice production. Reuters reported that India's rice output could fall substantially in 2026, with some rice-growing areas experiencing rainfall deficits as high as 42%. Summer-sown rice acreage was also reported to be lower than the previous year. 

What rice farmers should do

Where irrigation is available, farmers should prioritize water according to the crop's growth stage rather than maintaining unnecessarily deep standing water throughout the field.

For farmers using resource-conserving systems, practices such as Direct-Seeded Rice (DSR), appropriate weed management and supplemental irrigation during prolonged dry spells can form part of a climate-resilient strategy. ICAR has highlighted DSR, in-situ moisture conservation and supplemental irrigation as approaches for uncertain rainfall conditions.

Farmers should also monitor rice fields for:

• Leaf and plant wilting
• Poor tillering
• Nutrient deficiency symptoms
• Stem borer
• Brown planthopper and other pests
• Blast and other diseases

4. Pulses

Pulses such as tur (pigeon pea), urad and moong are important Kharif crops, particularly in rainfed farming systems.

Dry spells can affect:

• Plant establishment
• Flowering
• Pod formation
• Seed filling
• Final grain yield

Crisil has specifically identified tur among crops vulnerable to deficient rainfall.

What pulse farmers can do

Farmers should focus on maintaining soil moisture and minimizing competition from weeds.

Useful practices include:

• Timely intercultivation
• Weed control during critical crop stages
• Conservation of rainwater
• Maintaining soil cover where appropriate
• Using protective irrigation when available
• Regular pest scouting

For future seasons, short-duration varieties and suitable contingency crops can also help reduce exposure to terminal moisture stress. ICAR material highlights short-duration pulse varieties as one strategy for escaping late-season moisture and heat stress.

Moisture Conservation: The Most Important Strategy

When rainfall is uncertain, every millimetre of rainfall that reaches the field should be used efficiently.

Moisture conservation means reducing runoff and evaporation while increasing the amount of water stored in the soil.

1. Mulching

Mulching with suitable crop residues, straw or other locally available organic materials can reduce evaporation from the soil surface.

ICAR identifies mulching as an important in-situ moisture-conservation practice because it can reduce evaporation, moderate soil temperature and suppress weeds.

However, farmers should use mulch according to the crop and local conditions and avoid practices that create pest or disease problems.

2. Reduce Unnecessary Soil Disturbance

Repeated cultivation can break soil structure and expose moist soil to the atmosphere.

Where agronomically appropriate:

• Avoid unnecessary tillage.
• Maintain crop residue on the soil surface.
• Perform intercultivation at the right time.
• Prevent excessive soil compaction.

The objective is to keep available moisture in the crop root zone for as long as possible.

3. Create Rainwater-Harvesting Structures

Farm ponds, check dams, field bunds and other suitable water-harvesting structures can help capture runoff for later use.

This is particularly valuable in rainfed regions where rainfall may arrive in a few heavy events followed by extended dry periods.

ICAR has highlighted rainwater harvesting and in-situ moisture conservation as important measures for reducing crop stress during dry spells.

4. Use Protective Irrigation Carefully

If a farmer has access to limited water, it should be used strategically.

Instead of attempting to irrigate every acre equally, prioritize:

• Fields with severe moisture stress
• Crops at critical growth stages
• Flowering and reproductive stages
• Light or shallow soils that dry quickly

Drip and sprinkler systems can improve water-use efficiency where they are technically and economically suitable.

Crop Protection During Dry Spells

Dry weather does not mean farmers should stop crop protection. In fact, regular field scouting becomes even more important.

Monitor Pests Regularly

Farmers should inspect plants at least several times a week during prolonged dry periods.

Look for:

• Leaf curling
• Yellowing
• Wilting
• Leaf spots
• Sucking insects
• Caterpillars
• Mites
• Flower or pod damage
• Boll damage in cotton

Do not spray pesticides simply because rainfall has stopped. First identify the pest and assess whether treatment is actually necessary.

Be Careful With Fertilizer Application

Applying large quantities of fertilizer when the crop is severely moisture-stressed may not provide the expected benefit.

Farmers should follow soil-test-based and crop-specific fertilizer recommendations rather than increasing fertilizer doses in an attempt to compensate for poor rainfall.

ICAR's 2026 soil-conservation campaign has emphasized soil testing, balanced fertilizer use and scientific crop management.

What Farmers Should Do Now: A Practical Checklist

In the next 7 days

1. Check soil moisture

• Dig around the crop root zone.
• Check whether the soil is genuinely dry before deciding on irrigation.

2. Prioritize irrigation

• Use available water for crops at critical growth stages.
• Avoid unnecessary flooding or over-irrigation.

3. Control weeds

• Remove weeds that compete for limited soil moisture.

4. Inspect crops

• Check cotton, soybean, rice and pulses for moisture stress, insects and diseases.

5. Conserve every rainfall event

• Maintain bunds and field channels.
• Reduce runoff wherever possible.
• Keep suitable crop residues or mulch on the soil.

6. Avoid unnecessary pesticide applications

• Identify the pest or disease first.
• Follow recommended label doses and local agricultural advisories.

7. Follow weather-based advisories

• Check IMD/KVK and district-level agricultural advisories before major irrigation, spraying or other field operations. IMD provides district and crop-specific agrometeorological advisories for farmers.

Don't Wait for the Next Rain: Prepare the Field to Use It

One of the biggest mistakes during a weak monsoon is to think only about the next rainfall event.

The better approach is to prepare the farm to capture and retain that rainfall.

When rain arrives:

Rainfall → Reduce runoff → Increase infiltration → Store soil moisture → Protect the crop

This approach is especially important for rainfed farming systems in regions such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Rajasthan and other areas where crop production depends heavily on seasonal rainfall. Maharashtra, for example, has a relatively low share of irrigated agricultural area and has been identified by ICAR as a state where watershed management and rainwater harvesting can support protective irrigation.

Plan for the Kharif-to-Rabi Transition

The effect of a weak monsoon does not necessarily end with Kharif harvest.

September soil moisture is also important for Rabi crop establishment. A dry late monsoon can make land preparation and sowing of wheat, chickpea, mustard and other Rabi crops more difficult in rainfed areas.

Farmers should therefore start planning:

• Available water for Rabi
• Farm-pond storage
• Seed availability
• Short-duration crop options
• Crop diversification
• Soil moisture conservation
• Contingency plans for continued rainfall deficiency

Conclusion

The weak and uneven 2026 monsoon is creating a challenging environment for Indian Kharif farmers. Cotton, soybean, rice and pulses can all face yield risks when dry spells occur during critical growth stages.

The immediate priority should be moisture conservation, targeted irrigation, weed control, regular crop scouting and timely crop protection.

Farmers should not depend on rainfall alone. Capturing available rainwater, protecting soil moisture and using limited irrigation strategically can help reduce the impact of dry spells.

Most importantly, farm decisions should be based on local soil conditions, crop stage, available water and district-level weather advisories rather than applying the same recommendation to every field.

The key message for Kharif 2026 is simple: conserve every drop, protect the root zone, monitor crops closely and use water where it matters most.