What’s Next for Agriculture in India?
As a result of the rapid spread of COVID-19, global and domestic economies have taken a hit due to the lockdown of economic activities. GDP forecasts for 2020 have been revised downwards, from roughly 3% to -3% globally, and from roughly 6% to 2% in India.
Within the country, the government implemented a nationwide lockdown from March 25 to contain COVID-19’s spread. While some sources predict a rapid recovery starting in 2021, we expect a much longer downturn, lasting 18-24 months, driven by the need for an interim stop-start economy. In general, three main post-lockdown scenarios are possible, each with different economic implications.
1. Containment by September 2020: This is the best-case scenario, where COVID-19 is contained through a scientific breakthrough such as the development of a vaccine or scalable treatment, and we experience a sharp drop and quick resurgence in economic activity.Continue Reading